Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse
Identifieur interne : 000092 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000091; suivant : 000093Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse
Auteurs : Lucie M. Bland [Australie] ; Tracey J. Regan [Australie] ; Minh Ngoc Dinh [Australie] ; Renata Ferrari [Australie] ; David A. Keith [Australie] ; Rebecca Lester [Australie] ; David Mouillot [France, Australie] ; Nicholas J. Murray [Australie] ; Hoang Anh Nguyen [Australie] ; Emily Nicholson [Australie]Source :
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences [ 0962-8452 ] ; 2017.
Abstract
Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment.
Url:
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0660
PubMed: 28931744
PubMed Central: 5627190
Affiliations:
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Bland</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>Deakin University, Australia, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Integrative Ecology</institution>,<addr-line>Burwood, 3121, Victoria</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2"><institution>School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne</institution>,<addr-line>Parkville, 3010, Victoria</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Regan, Tracey J" sort="Regan, Tracey J" uniqKey="Regan T" first="Tracey J." last="Regan">Tracey J. Regan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3"><institution>The Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning</institution>,<addr-line>123 Brown Street, Heidelberg, 3084, Victoria</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dinh, Minh Ngoc" sort="Dinh, Minh Ngoc" uniqKey="Dinh M" first="Minh Ngoc" last="Dinh">Minh Ngoc Dinh</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4"><institution>Research Computing Centre, University of Queensland</institution>,<addr-line>St Lucia, 4072, Queensland</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ferrari, Renata" sort="Ferrari, Renata" uniqKey="Ferrari R" first="Renata" last="Ferrari">Renata Ferrari</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af5"><institution>Coastal and Marine Ecosystems Group, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney</institution>,<addr-line>Sydney, New South Wales</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Keith, David A" sort="Keith, David A" uniqKey="Keith D" first="David A." last="Keith">David A. Keith</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af6"><institution>Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science, University of New South Wales</institution>,<addr-line>Kensington, 2052, New South Wales</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af7"><institution>New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage</institution>,<addr-line>Hurstville, 2220, New South Wales</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af8"><institution>Long Term Ecological Research Network, Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network, Australian National University</institution>,<addr-line>Canberra, 0200, Australian Capital Territory</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lester, Rebecca" sort="Lester, Rebecca" uniqKey="Lester R" first="Rebecca" last="Lester">Rebecca Lester</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af9"><institution>Deakin University, Australia, Centre for Regional and Rural Futures</institution>,<addr-line>Geelong, 3220, Victoria</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mouillot, David" sort="Mouillot, David" uniqKey="Mouillot D" first="David" last="Mouillot">David Mouillot</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af10"><institution>UMR 5119—Écologie des Systèmes marins côtiers, Université Montpellier 2</institution>,<addr-line>Montpellier Cedex 5</addr-line>,<country>France</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af11"><institution>ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University</institution>,<addr-line>Townsville, 4881, Queensland</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Murray, Nicholas J" sort="Murray, Nicholas J" uniqKey="Murray N" first="Nicholas J." last="Murray">Nicholas J. Murray</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af6"><institution>Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science, University of New South Wales</institution>,<addr-line>Kensington, 2052, New South Wales</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nguyen, Hoang Anh" sort="Nguyen, Hoang Anh" uniqKey="Nguyen H" first="Hoang Anh" last="Nguyen">Hoang Anh Nguyen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4"><institution>Research Computing Centre, University of Queensland</institution>,<addr-line>St Lucia, 4072, Queensland</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nicholson, Emily" sort="Nicholson, Emily" uniqKey="Nicholson E" first="Emily" last="Nicholson">Emily Nicholson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>Deakin University, Australia, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Integrative Ecology</institution>,<addr-line>Burwood, 3121, Victoria</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences</title><idno type="ISSN">0962-8452</idno><idno type="eISSN">1471-2954</idno><imprint><date when="2017">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cardinale, Bj" uniqKey="Cardinale B">BJ Cardinale</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Keith, Da" uniqKey="Keith D">DA Keith</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nicholson, E" uniqKey="Nicholson E">E Nicholson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Keith, Da" uniqKey="Keith D">DA Keith</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wilcove, Ds" uniqKey="Wilcove D">DS Wilcove</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bland, Lm" uniqKey="Bland L">LM Bland</name></author><author><name sortKey="Keith, Da" uniqKey="Keith D">DA Keith</name></author><author><name sortKey="Miller, Rm" uniqKey="Miller R">RM Miller</name></author><author><name sortKey="Murray, Nj" uniqKey="Murray N">NJ Murray</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rodriguez, Jp" uniqKey="Rodriguez J">JP. 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Blanchard Julia</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mumby Peter, J" uniqKey="Mumby Peter J">J Mumby Peter</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Murray, Nj" uniqKey="Murray N">NJ Murray</name></author><author><name sortKey="Keith, Da" uniqKey="Keith D">DA Keith</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bland, Lm" uniqKey="Bland L">LM Bland</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nicholson, E" uniqKey="Nicholson E">E Nicholson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Regan, Tj" uniqKey="Regan T">TJ Regan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rodriguez, Jp" uniqKey="Rodriguez J">JP Rodríguez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bedward, M" uniqKey="Bedward M">M Bedward</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Sheppard, Cr" uniqKey="Sheppard C">CR Sheppard</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Guinotte, J" uniqKey="Guinotte J">J Guinotte</name></author><author><name sortKey="Buddemeier, R" uniqKey="Buddemeier R">R Buddemeier</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kleypas, J" uniqKey="Kleypas J">J Kleypas</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Knapp, Kr" uniqKey="Knapp K">KR Knapp</name></author><author><name sortKey="Applequist, S" uniqKey="Applequist S">S Applequist</name></author><author><name sortKey="Diamond, Hj" uniqKey="Diamond H">HJ Diamond</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kossin, Jp" uniqKey="Kossin J">JP Kossin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kruk, M" uniqKey="Kruk M">M Kruk</name></author><author><name sortKey="Schreck, C" uniqKey="Schreck C">C Schreck</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gardner, Ta" uniqKey="Gardner T">TA Gardner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cote, Im" uniqKey="Cote I">IM Cote</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gill, Ja" uniqKey="Gill J">JA Gill</name></author><author><name sortKey="Grant, A" uniqKey="Grant A">A Grant</name></author><author><name sortKey="Watkinson, Ar" uniqKey="Watkinson A">AR Watkinson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ainsworth, Td" uniqKey="Ainsworth T">TD Ainsworth</name></author><author><name sortKey="Heron, Sf" uniqKey="Heron S">SF Heron</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ortiz, Jc" uniqKey="Ortiz J">JC Ortiz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mumby, Pj" uniqKey="Mumby P">PJ Mumby</name></author><author><name sortKey="Grech, A" uniqKey="Grech A">A Grech</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ogawa, D" uniqKey="Ogawa D">D Ogawa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Eakin, Cm" uniqKey="Eakin C">CM Eakin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leggat, W" uniqKey="Leggat W">W Leggat</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="G Rdenfors, U" uniqKey="G Rdenfors U">U Gärdenfors</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Shin, Y J" uniqKey="Shin Y">Y-J Shin</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Maynard, J" uniqKey="Maynard J">J Maynard</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mumby, Pj" uniqKey="Mumby P">PJ Mumby</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wolff, Nh" uniqKey="Wolff N">NH Wolff</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bozec, Ym" uniqKey="Bozec Y">YM Bozec</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chollett, I" uniqKey="Chollett I">I Chollett</name></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, P" uniqKey="Halloran P">P Halloran</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>France</li></country></list><tree><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Bland, Lucie M" sort="Bland, Lucie M" uniqKey="Bland L" first="Lucie M." last="Bland">Lucie M. Bland</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Bland, Lucie M" sort="Bland, Lucie M" uniqKey="Bland L" first="Lucie M." last="Bland">Lucie M. Bland</name><name sortKey="Dinh, Minh Ngoc" sort="Dinh, Minh Ngoc" uniqKey="Dinh M" first="Minh Ngoc" last="Dinh">Minh Ngoc Dinh</name><name sortKey="Ferrari, Renata" sort="Ferrari, Renata" uniqKey="Ferrari R" first="Renata" last="Ferrari">Renata Ferrari</name><name sortKey="Keith, David A" sort="Keith, David A" uniqKey="Keith D" first="David A." last="Keith">David A. Keith</name><name sortKey="Keith, David A" sort="Keith, David A" uniqKey="Keith D" first="David A." last="Keith">David A. Keith</name><name sortKey="Keith, David A" sort="Keith, David A" uniqKey="Keith D" first="David A." last="Keith">David A. Keith</name><name sortKey="Lester, Rebecca" sort="Lester, Rebecca" uniqKey="Lester R" first="Rebecca" last="Lester">Rebecca Lester</name><name sortKey="Mouillot, David" sort="Mouillot, David" uniqKey="Mouillot D" first="David" last="Mouillot">David Mouillot</name><name sortKey="Murray, Nicholas J" sort="Murray, Nicholas J" uniqKey="Murray N" first="Nicholas J." last="Murray">Nicholas J. Murray</name><name sortKey="Nguyen, Hoang Anh" sort="Nguyen, Hoang Anh" uniqKey="Nguyen H" first="Hoang Anh" last="Nguyen">Hoang Anh Nguyen</name><name sortKey="Nicholson, Emily" sort="Nicholson, Emily" uniqKey="Nicholson E" first="Emily" last="Nicholson">Emily Nicholson</name><name sortKey="Regan, Tracey J" sort="Regan, Tracey J" uniqKey="Regan T" first="Tracey J." last="Regan">Tracey J. Regan</name></country><country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="Mouillot, David" sort="Mouillot, David" uniqKey="Mouillot D" first="David" last="Mouillot">David Mouillot</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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